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Based on the SEIR model, two compartments for self-protection and isolation are introduced, and a more general infectious disease transmission model is proposed.Through qualitative analysis of the model, the basic reproduction number of the model is calculated, and the local asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium point and the endemic equilibrium point of the model is analyzed through eigenvalue theory and Routh-Hurwitz criterion.The numerical simulation and fitting results of COVID-19 virus show that the proposed SEIQRP model can effectively describe the dynamic transmission process of the infectious disease.In the model, the three parameters, i.e.protection rate, incubation period isolation rate, and infected person isolation rate play a very critical role in the spread of the disease.Raising people's awareness of self-protection, focusing on screening for patients in the incubation period, and isolating and treating infected people can effectively reduce the spread of infectious diseases. © 2023 Northeastern University.All rights reserved.
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COVID-19 has a dramatic impact on human health, besides respiratory system, reproduction system would be impaired by SARS-CoV-2. For male, the virus has various negative impacts on testes, including overheating and hormone level fluctuation, which have impacts on the spermatogenesis or spermatogonia development. For female, COVID-19 may increase the risk of endocrine and metabolic dysfunction. However, the impact of SARS-CoV-2 on the ovaries is not clear, and further researches are needed to clarify it. Nearly 60% of the pregnant women develop symptoms of infection and more attention should be paid to the increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes including preeclampsia, eclampsia, and severe infection. For the newborns of infected pregnant women, vertical transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is still unclear, and further evaluation are required. Meantime, the pregnant women's fear of the potential infection may reduce their access to the prenatal genetic test. In this chapter, we summarize the latest basic and clinical researches on COVID-19 impacts on male, female reproduction, and prenatal genetic test, hoping to provide guidance and advice for people of reproductive age and reproductive healthcare practitioners. © 2023 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Background: Pain is the main complaint felt by mothers during childbirth. Pain management can be done with non-pharma-cological techniques, one of which is using the Rebozo technique. Objective(s): This study aimed to determine the effectiveness of the rebozo technique for active phase 1 labour pain in primipa-rous women. Method(s): The study used a quasi-experimental design with a pretest and posttest control group. An accidental sampling technique divided a sample of 30 people into control and intervention groups. The intervention group received Rebozo therapy, a therapy using a traditional cloth wrapped around the pelvis and buttocks with the mother kneeling, then shaking it slowly. The pain was measured using the Visual Analogue Scale (VAS), ranging from 0-10. Bivariate test using Wilcoxon. Result(s): The majority of respondents were aged 21-29 years (56.7%), had high school education (83.3%) and were house-wives (50%). The majority of the control group showed moderate pain (53.3%), while the intervention group showed severe (60%). The reduction in pain in the intervention group was more significant than in the control group (2.27 > 0.73). Both the control group and the intervention group showed p < 0.001. Conclusion(s): The Rebozo technique effectively reduces labour pain in the active phase of the first stage in primiparous women. This technique is easy and inexpensive, so it can be an option for non-pharmacological therapy to treat labour pain.Copyright © 2023 Japan University of Health Sciences.
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Context. Breech strike compromises wool production and welfare of Merinos. Long tails contribute to the formation of dags, increasing the risk of sheep attracting gravid blowfly females. Tail-docking is popular globally, as it reduces the incidence of dags. Breeding for a reduced tail length is a more socially accepted measure to replace tail-docking as a management strategy, since stronger legislation for animal welfare is expected. Aim. The study used historic data on tail length (TL), birth weight (BW) and bodyweight at docking (DW) to estimate genetic and environmental parameters for these traits in a well known South African resource flock. Methods. Merino lambs born from 2016 to 2021 (except for 2020 due to Covid-19) of the Elsenburg Merino flock were recorded for TL, BW and DW. The flock was separated by divergent selection for and against a number of lambs weaned per ewe mated in a High (H) and a Low (L) line. Fixed effects included birth year, sex, selection line, dam age and birth type. ASReml was used to analyse the fixed effects so as to obtain an operational model, before adding the random direct genetic (h(2)), maternal genetic (m(2)) and maternal permanent environmental (c(2)) effects. Results. H-line lambs were heavier at birth and tail-docking, with longer tails than those of L-line contemporaries (all P < 0.01). The line difference in TL seemed to be size-dependent, as it was eliminated by adding DW as a covariate to the analysis. The same trend was observed for sex, dam age and birth type. TL was thus affected (P < 0.01) only by birth year in the latter analysis. Regressions of TL on age at tail-docking and DW were highly significant (P < 0.01). Single-trait estimates of h(2) were 0.26 for BW, 0.06 for DW, and 0.30 for TL. TL remained heritable at 0.38 in the analysis including DW as a covariate. Including m(2) improved the random- effects model for TL (0.08) and DW (0.20). TL and DW were genetically correlated (rG = 0.47 and rM = 0.70). Conclusions. TL was moderately heritable, with small m(2) and non-significant c(2) effects. It will be possible to directly select for TL. However, selection for shorter tails will reduce size if breeding values are not adjusted for DW as a covariate. Implications. Further studies on the genetic basis of TL as well as its genetic correlations with other traits of economic importance are warranted.
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Objectives: Developing a control group of a clinical trial using real world data is desirable and ethically sound despite challenges pertaining to internal validity. To examine the internal validity, we reproduced the control group in a Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) using Electric Health Record (EHR) data and evaluated the difference between the outcome of the original trial and that of the reproduced analysis. Method(s): We selected an RCT, REMDACTA trial, that was performed to evaluate the efficacy of tocilizumab plus remdesivir against placebo plus remdesivir in patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia. We reproduced its control group (patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia taking only remdesivir), using Japanese EHR data, Millennial Medical Record provided by Life Data Initiative. Target patients for the main analysis were those prescribed remdesivir within 2 days after admission and diagnosed with COVID-19 (defined by ICD-10 code, U07.1) and/or with COVID-19 pneumonia (defined by diagnosis name). Patients in the sub analysis included only those with COVID-19 pneumonia diagnosis. Among the target patients, those undergoing image inspection, oxygen administration, and not taking any medicines for pneumonia before the first remdesivir prescription were eligible for the analyses. Median length of stay was compared in the reproduced group and in REMDACTA trial. Result(s): The database included 676 and 110 target patients for the main and sub analyses, respectively. However, only 57 and 14 patients met the eligibility criteria for the main and sub analyses, respectively. The reduction in the number of patients is attributed to the criteria of image inspection and oxygen administration. Median length of stay in the reproduced group were 13 and 11 days in the main and sub analyses, respectively. In REMDACTA trial, 95% CI of median time was 11.0-16.0. Conclusion(s): We successfully reproduced the median time of the control group by EHR data.Copyright © 2023
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Globally, the COVID-19 pandemic's development has presented significant societal and economic challenges. The carriers of COVID-19 transmission have also been identified as asymptomatic infected people. Yet, most epidemic models do not consider their impact when accounting for the disease's indirect transmission. This study suggested and investigated a mathematical model replicating the spread of coronavirus disease among asymptomatic infected people. A study was conducted on every aspect of the system's solution. The equilibrium points and the basic reproduction number were computed. The endemic equilibrium point and the disease-free equilibrium point had both undergone local stability analyses. A geometric technique was used to look into the global dynamics of the endemic point, whereas the Castillo-Chavez theorem was used to look into the global stability of the disease-free point. The system's transcritical bifurcation at the disease-free point was discovered to exist. The system parameters were changed using the basic reproduction number's sensitivity technique. Ultimately, a numerical simulation was used to apply the model to the population of Iraq in order to validate the findings and define the factors that regulate illness breakout.
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This paper examines social and economic disparities surrounding the GOV] D-19 pandemic within the context of neoliberal capitalism. The gendered, racialized, and other social inequities that were evident during this health crisis are linked to shifting work conditions and activities of labor and capital within the workplace and at the household level. The analysis draws from feminist economic geography to examine the social dimensions, spatial dynamics, and economic processes that are highlighted by changes in work and social relations during and beyond the COVID-19 pandemic. The discussion demonstrates how economic upheavals such as those that occurred alongside the pandemic are embedded in social reproduction, with particular emphasis on the precarity of labor and contested household dynamics. Furthermore, ongoing crises in neoliberal capitalism provide the conditions for social movements that challenge inequities and oppressive conditions for labor. The conclusion offers strategies for future directions of work that support inclusive and transformative ideals of feminist economic geography. © 2023, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona. All rights reserved.
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Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the performance of several sectors, one of which is the quality of maternal and child health services. One of the factors contributing to the decline in the quality of maternal and child health services is limited access during the COVID-19 pandemic. Telemedicine is here as one of the answers to overcome the problem of limited access to health services during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to analyze the use of telemedicine applications by pregnant women during the COVID-19 pandemic using the ISO 9241-11 framework. Subjects and Method: This research method is an observational study with a descriptive approach to analyze usability in three measurement aspects namely effectiveness, efficiency, and satisfaction. The number of samples used was 42 pregnant women who had used telemedicine applications that had been determined during the COVID-19 period with a sampling technique using random sampling. The instrument used is an adaptation of the Standardized Usability Questionnaire (SUQ) which will be analyzed using the Structural Equation Modeling-Partial Least Square (SEM-PLS) technique to determine the usability score of the application. Results: Based on the results of the Structural Equation Model-Partial Least Square (SEM-PLS) analysis, the ISO 9241-11 model has a goodness-of-fit model with an R-square value of 0.760 and a Q-square value of 0.577 with a Goodness of Fit (GoF) of 0.780. The effectiveness variable has a significant effect on the usability variable of the Teman Bumil application at a significance level of 5% with a statistical T value of 1,955. There is not enough evidence for the efficiency and satisfaction variables to say they have a significant effect on the usability of the Teman Bumil application at a 5% significance level with T-statistic values of 0.866 and 1.452. The usability score for the Friends Pregnant application is 44.45. Conclusion: The usability score obtained by the Teman Bumil application is 44.45, which means that Sahabat Bumil application has not been accepted by users as a system product that can help effectively, efficiently and satisfactorily.
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Feminist scholars and activists have long fought to make visible the fundamental but overlooked social reproduction work performed primarily by women, often in households. Taking on black feminist criticisms of the initial prioritization of the experience of white, middle-class women, these debates have developed into a broader social reproduction theory, which emphasizes the relationality of multiple forms of oppression under capitalism. The COVID-19 pandemic, with its lockdowns, temporarily turned the traditional distribution between visible and invisible work on its head when many so-called productive workers were ushered into their homes, leaving only the most essential workers publicly visible in the streets and valorized in online spaces. The sudden visibility of these generally low-paid, often racialized and marginalized workers now coded as ‘essential' highlighted the importance of the work of social reproduction. However, the category of essential workers was ambivalent, in that by making visible some forms of social reproduction it continued to obscure others, especially familial care work and housework. In this article we analyse the ambivalent category of the essential worker and argue that it exemplifies, as social reproduction theory attests, that the capitalist production process always requires invisible labour, even as some previously invisible forms become increasingly visible. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Journal of Gender Studies is the property of Routledge and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)
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Bulgaria has the lowest COVID-19 vaccination rate in the European Union and the second-highest COVID-19 mortality rate in the world. That is why we think it is important better to understand the reason for this situation and to analyse the development of the disease over time. In this paper, an extended time-dependent SEIRS model SEIRS-VB is used to investigate the long-term behaviour of the COVID-19 epidemic. This model includes vaccination and vital dynamics. To apply the SEIRS-VB model some numerical simulation tools have been developed and for this reason a family of time-discrete variants are introduced. Suitable inverse problems for the identification of parameters in discrete models are solved. A methodology is proposed for selecting a discrete model from the constructed family, which has the closest parameter values to these in the differential SEIRS-VB model. To validate the studied models, Bulgarian COVID-19 data are used. To obtain all these results for the discrete models a mathematical analysis is carried out to illustrate some biological properties of the differential model SEIRS-VB, such as the non-negativity, boundedness, existence, and uniqueness. Using the next-generation method, the basic reproduction number associated with the model in the autonomous case is defined. The local stability of the disease-free equilibrium point is studied. Finally, a sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number is performed.
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Humanity is currently living a true nightmare never seen before due to the pandemic caused by COVID-19 disease, scientific researchers are working day and night to find an ideal vaccine that eradicates this pandemic. The purpose of this paper is to investigate a SIHV pandemic model taking into account a vaccination strategy. For this aim, we consider a model with four compartments that describes the interaction between the susceptible cases S, the real infected cases I, the hospitalized, confirmed infected cases H and the vaccinated-treated individuals V. We establish the local stability of our model, depending on the basic reproduction number, by using the Routh-Hurwitz theorem. We perform some numerical simulations in order to confirm our theoretical results and discuss the effect of the rate of vaccination on controlling the spread of COVID-19. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022.
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Objectives: To examine the relative effectiveness of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on COVID-19 infection, reproduction rate, and deaths in the US. Method(s): Retrospective national-level US data were obtained from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT dataset). We performed time-trend analyses from December 2020 to December 2022 to observe how the values of policy variables and the number of COVID-19 new cases and deaths changed over time. The policy variables included (1) the number of people fully vaccinated per 100 of the total population (referred to as vaccination rate) and (2) the stringency index (a proxy for NPIs since it is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, stay-at-home requirements, and travel bans). We also performed multivariable linear regression to examine the associations between the policy variables and the COVID-19 reproduction rate. Result(s): Based on the time-trend analyses, the number of people vaccinated started to rise since March 2021, while the stringency index had steadily declined since early January 2021. A decrease in new COVID-19 cases and deaths was also observed during these three months (January to March 2021). However, despite a higher vaccination rate than in early 2021, new COVID-19 cases and deaths peaked in late 2021 and early 2022, suggesting that some NPIs might still be needed. The multivariable linear regression analysis showed that the reproduction rate of COVID-19 was negatively associated with the stringency index (coefficient = -0.010, 95% CI -0.013 to -0.005) and vaccination rate (coefficient = -0.005, 95% CI -0.009 to -0.001), after controlling for time covariates. Conclusion(s): The study highlighted the importance of NPIs in reducing new COVID-19 cases and deaths even when vaccination was in progress. Further research accounting for other factors is needed to disentangle the effects of NPIs and other measures from vaccination campaigns.Copyright © 2023
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Objectives: COVID-19 reached its fourth year of pandemic since 2020. The repeated waves of infections have been driven by multiple factors such as pathological traits of variants, diagnostic accuracy, and vaccination conditions. This study revisits and analyzes the dynamic processes of viral transmission to generate new scientific knowledge. Method(s): A cascade model of viral transmission from one case to another was developed, and theoretically analyzed how the number of infected cases at time t, D+[t], can be changed at time t+1, D+[t+1], considering six parameters: 1) k:level of transmission, 2) Rt: effective reproduction number, 3) rho: capture rate of infected cases, 4) theta: immunity protection rate in individuals, 5) epsilon: evasion rate from vaccines, and 6) Sn: test sensitivity. Result(s): The formula which associates D+[t] with D+[t+1] was given as follows: D+[t+1] = K.D+[t], where K = {(1-Sn) + (1-rho) / rho}{1-Rtk (1-theta(1-epsilon))k} / {1-Rt (1-theta(1-epsilon))}. Also, assuming K be smaller than 1, the lower limit of test sensitivity to stop the viral transmission was formulated: Sn > {Rt (1-theta(1-epsilon))-Rtk(1-theta(1-epsilon))k} / {(1-Rtk(1-theta(1-epsilon))k)rho}. In example computations, the formula indicated that a one-off PCR test with the sensitivity of 85% would not be sufficient to contain highly contagious infections such as the Omicron variants, and that it would be practically impossible to control the situation with the immune-evasive sub-variants in circulation. Conclusion(s): The theory developed in this study broadens the science on evidence-based public health and will be useful for outcomes studies and informed decisions on public policy for pandemic control.Copyright © 2023
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BackgroundVaccinations comprise a part of the antenatal care of pregnant women, including patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) who are at increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes (APOs). While COVID-19 vaccination has been shown to be safe in patients with SLE, data on vaccine-associated adverse events (AEs) during the antenatal and lactation period are scarce or lacking.ObjectivesTo investigate the association between COVID-19 vaccination and AEs in pregnant SLE patients.MethodsA total of 9201 complete responses were extracted on June 21st, 2022 from the COVID-19 Vaccination in Autoimmune Diseases (COVAD) 2 database, a global e-survey involving 157 collaborators from 106 countries. Among respondents, 6787 (73.8%) were women. We identified 70 (1.1%) women who were exposed to at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose during pregnancy, among those 11 with SLE. Delayed onset (>7 days) vaccine-related AEs were extracted and triangulated with disease activity, treatment changes due to flare after vaccination, and COVID-19 infections in vaccinated pregnant women with SLE. Additionally, information on health-related quality of life and physical function was recorded using PROMIS at the time of survey completion.ResultsThe age of patients ranged from 28 to 39 years;5/11 women were of Asian origin. None of these patients reported major vaccine AEs, including four patients with self-reported active SLE prior to the vaccination. None of them reported any change in the status of their autoimmune disease, and no hospitalisation or special treatment was recorded. Six women experienced minor vaccine AEs;two of them had active disease prior to vaccination. Four patients reported COVID-19 infection;two of them while they were pregnant and post-vaccination and two prior to pregnancy and vaccination. All four patients experienced symptoms of their disease, but no overt SLE flare was reported. At the time of survey completion, all patients reported their general health as being good to excellent in all aspects evaluated. Importantly, no APOs were reported.None of the patients reported thrombotic events post-vaccination, which provides some reassurance regarding COVID-19 vaccination in a patient population with a high risk for cardiovascular comorbidity and thrombosis, especially in the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies or in patients diagnosed with the antiphospholipid syndrome, a considerable portion within SLE populations. Moreover, it was reassuring to note an absence of association between experienced vaccine AEs and active disease prior to vaccination. Although minor AEs were common, they did not impair daily functioning, and the symptoms resolved in all patients after a median of 3 (IQR: 2.5–5.0) days.ConclusionOur report adds relevant evidence concerning the sensitive issue of COVID-19 vaccine AEs and flares in SLE patients during the antenatal and lactation period. Despite the small sample size, the findings provide some reassurance and can contribute to informed decisions regarding vaccination in patients with SLE and high-risk pregnancies due to their background autoimmune disease. Based on the present data, the risk/benefit ration of COVID-19 vaccination appears favourable, with vaccines both providing passive immunisation to the fetus and active immunisation to the mother with no signals of exacerbation of the mother's autoimmune disease.Figure 1.Timeline showing COVID-19 vaccination and vaccination-related minor adverse events in relation to gestational and post-partum periods in eleven pregnant/lactating women with systemic lupus erythematosus.[Figure omitted. See PDF]AcknowledgementsThe authors thank all survey respondents, as well as patient associations and all members of the COVAD study group for their invaluable role in the data collection.Disclosure of InterestsNefeli Giannopoulou: None declared, Latika Gupta: None declared, Laura Andreoli: None declared, Daniele Lini: None declared, Elena Nikiphorou: None declared, Rohit Aggarwal Grant/research support from: R.A. has a consultancy relationshi with and/or has received research funding from Bristol Myers-Squibb, Pfizer, Genentech, Octapharma, CSL Behring, Mallinckrodt, AstraZeneca, Corbus, Kezar, Abbvie, Janssen, Kyverna Alexion, Argenx, Q32, EMD-Serono, Boehringer Ingelheim, Roivant, Merck, Galapagos, Actigraph, Scipher, Horizon Therapeutics, Teva, Beigene, ANI Pharmaceuticals, Biogen, Nuvig, Capella Bioscience, and CabalettaBio., Vikas Agarwal: None declared, Ioannis Parodis Grant/research support from: I.P. has received research funding and/or honoraria from Amgen, AstraZeneca, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals, Elli Lilly and Company, Gilead Sciences, GlaxoSmithKline, Janssen Pharmaceuticals, Novartis, and F. Hoffmann-La Roche AG.
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COVID-19 is the short name of the coronavirus disease discovered in Wuhan, China, in 2019. In the context of Tanzania, we develop a mathematical model in this work that compares lockdown and quarantine. Again, we provide evidence in favor of local and global stability, with the basic reproduction number, R 0 , determined to be 0.31 at the diagnostic test rates k 1 = k 2 = 0.05. In comparison to the lockdown, it has been discovered that isolating (or quarantining) affected individuals is the most effective way to stop the spread of COVID-19. Additionally, it is advised that governments in Tanzania and other African countries permit their citizens to go about their daily lives as long as they take the necessary precautions, such as donning face masks, washing their hands, and avoiding crowded gatherings in case of a recurrence of any form of COVID-19. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Computational & Mathematical Methods in Medicine is the property of Hindawi Limited and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)
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The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a communicable respiratory disease caused by a new strain of coronavirus that causes illness in humans. The disease is caused by a pathogen called Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 and can be transmitted from person to person through infected air droplets that are projected during sneezing or coughing. The coronavirus disease has generally affected all sectors of the society, including the health sector and reproductive health in particular. Reproductive health contributes greatly to physical and psychosocial comfort and closeness between individuals. Adequate and balanced reproductive health can be impaired and deprived by diseases, abuse, exploitation, unwanted pregnancy, and death. This review paper looked into possible effects of COVID-19 pandemic on reproductive health. Human and nonhuman primate literatures were examined to extract empirical data detailing the impact of COVID-19 on reproductive health. Literatures were sourced from Ovid MEDLINE, SCOPUS, the Cochrane Library, Ovid EMBASE, CINAHL Plus, PROQUEST, PUBMED, and Web of Science. Experimental and clinical evidence were used to examine whether COVID-19 adversely impacted on the reproductive health of infected and non-infected population. The global outbreak of COVID-19 has led to measures driven by the pandemic, to prevent further spread and effectual treatment of those affected. This has literally caused decrease in sexual and reproductive health care services due to global lockdowns and closures of health sectors deemed to be non-essential in combating the disease.
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In this paper, we introduce a SIVR model using the Laplace Adomian decomposition. This model focuses on a new trend in mathematical epidemiology dedicated to studying the characteristics of vaccination of infected communities. We analyze the epidemiological parameters using equilibrium stability and numerical analysis techniques. New mathematical strategies are also applied to establish our epidemic model, which is a pandemic model as well. In addition, we mathematically establish the chance for the next wave of any pandemic disease and show that a consistent vaccination strategy could control it. Our proposal is the first model introducing a vaccination strategy to actively infected cases. We are sure this work will serve as the basis for future research on COVID-19 and pandemic diseases since our study also considers the vaccinated population. © 2023 by the authors.
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Beside the unexpected toll of mortality and morbidity caused by COVID-19 worldwide, low- and middle-income countries are more suffering from the devastating issues on economic and social life. This disease has fostered mathematical modelling. In this paper, a SEIAR mathematical model is presented to illustrate how policymakers may apply efficient strategies to end or at least to control the devastating wide spread of COVID-19. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.